The -4.0 Problem: What Actually Happens When a College Football Coach Gets Fired
I gave every coaching change the same -4.0 penalty. Cignetti went 16-0. Belichick went 4-8. Two years of data changed how I model coaching impact.
College football analytics, insights, and deep dives powered by data.
I gave every coaching change the same -4.0 penalty. Cignetti went 16-0. Belichick went 4-8. Two years of data changed how I model coaching impact.
The transfer portal grew 111% in seven years. Roster spots didn't. Over 1,200 FBS scholarship players had no landing spot when the window closed. The math is breaking.
2026 transfer portal winners and losers ranked by analytics. See how 3,300 FBS roster moves shift win projections and reshape college football's power balance.
Why is predicting college football so hard? Our AI made 748 picks in 2025. High-edge picks hit 60%. Then the postseason broke the model. Full autopsy.
SP+ is the gold standard of college football efficiency ratings. We explain what it measures, why per-play efficiency matters more than raw stats, and how it feeds into our Coaching Imprint system.