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The Edge Report

College football analytics, insights, and deep dives powered by data.

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Analytics

The -4.0 Problem: What Actually Happens When a College Football Coach Gets Fired

I gave every coaching change the same -4.0 penalty. Cignetti went 16-0. Belichick went 4-8. Two years of data changed how I model coaching impact.

2026-02-24 9 min read
Analytics

The Portal's Quiet Crisis: 1,200 Players With Nowhere to Go

The transfer portal grew 111% in seven years. Roster spots didn't. Over 1,200 FBS scholarship players had no landing spot when the window closed. The math is breaking.

2026-02-24 8 min read
Analytics

2026 Transfer Portal Impact Rankings: Winners, Losers, and the Data Behind the Chaos

2026 transfer portal winners and losers ranked by analytics. See how 3,300 FBS roster moves shift win projections and reshape college football's power balance.

2026-02-23 10 min read
Analytics

Why Predicting College Football Is So Hard: A 2025 Season Autopsy

Why is predicting college football so hard? Our AI made 748 picks in 2025. High-edge picks hit 60%. Then the postseason broke the model. Full autopsy.

2026-02-19 7 min read
Analytics

Understanding SP+ Ratings: The Foundation of Modern Football Analytics

SP+ is the gold standard of college football efficiency ratings. We explain what it measures, why per-play efficiency matters more than raw stats, and how it feeds into our Coaching Imprint system.

2026-02-17 7 min read
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