Two Philosophies, One Goal
College football offense has never been more diverse. On one sideline, you have the heirs of the Air Raid -- a spread passing system built on quick reads, mesh concepts, and relentless vertical attacks. On the other, you have the RPO revolution -- run-pass options that put the quarterback in control at the mesh point and force defenses to choose between stopping the run and covering the pass.
Both systems aim to create numerical advantages. They just go about it in fundamentally different ways. And when you examine them through the lens of Coaching DNA, the differences become even more striking.
The Air Raid Legacy
The Air Raid traces its roots to Hal Mumme and Mike Leach, who turned Texas Tech into a passing powerhouse in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Leach's death in 2022 marked the end of an era, but his influence is everywhere. Coaches like Kliff Kingsbury, Dana Holgorsen, and Sonny Dykes all carry strands of Air Raid DNA.
In our Coaching DNA system, Air Raid coaches typically show:
- High offense_passing scores: These offenses throw the ball on over 55% of plays, often regardless of game situation.
- Elevated offense_pace: Tempo is a weapon. By snapping the ball quickly, Air Raid teams prevent substitutions and keep defenses in their base personnel.
- Moderate offense_explosiveness: While the system generates big plays through vertical shots, much of its production comes from high-volume, high-efficiency short and intermediate throws.
- Lower offense_rushing scores: The run game exists, but it is supplementary rather than foundational.
The SP+ data confirms this pattern. Historically, Air Raid teams rank in the top 25 in passing success rate but often sit outside the top 50 in rushing efficiency. The philosophy is not built to grind -- it is built to strike.
The RPO Revolution
RPO-based offenses have surged in popularity over the past decade. Unlike the Air Raid, which is primarily a passing system with run-game elements, RPOs put the run and the pass on equal footing on every snap. The quarterback reads a designated defender after the snap and decides whether to hand the ball off, pull it and throw a quick pass, or keep it himself.
Coaches like Steve Sarkisian, Josh Heupel, and Jeff Lebby have built their identities around layered RPO concepts. In our DNA framework, RPO-heavy coaches typically display:
- Balanced offense_rushing and offense_passing scores: Neither dimension dominates. The balance is the point.
- High offense_success_rate: Because the QB is reading the defense post-snap, RPO offenses tend to be efficient on a per-play basis. They take what the defense gives.
- Strong offense_explosiveness: When the defense over-commits to stop the run, RPO coaches punish them with explosive passes. This creates a consistently high big-play rate.
- Variable offense_pace: Some RPO coaches (like Heupel) push tempo aggressively. Others (like Sarkisian) prefer a more deliberate approach, using tempo situationally.
How It Shows Up on the Constellation
Head over to our Coaching Constellation and compare a coach like Sarkisian with a more traditional Air Raid disciple. The radar charts tell the story immediately. Sarkisian's chart will appear more balanced -- a rounder shape that reflects strength across multiple offensive dimensions. An Air Raid coach's chart will be more elongated, spiking in passing metrics and dipping in rushing.
This is what makes the constellation so useful for understanding matchups. When an RPO offense faces a defense built to stop the run, the offense can seamlessly shift to passing without changing personnel or formations. When an Air Raid offense faces a strong pass rush, it has fewer answers because the system depends on protection holding up long enough for routes to develop.
Why It Matters for Predictions
Offensive philosophy is not just a stylistic preference -- it directly affects game outcomes. Our prediction models account for the interaction between offensive and defensive DNA profiles. A few patterns we have observed:
- Air Raid vs. strong pass defense: When a team with high offense_passing scores meets a defense with elite defense_passing and defense_havoc ratings, the offense tends to underperform its season averages. Pressure disrupts rhythm.
- RPO vs. aggressive defenses: RPO offenses perform well against blitz-heavy defenses because the post-snap read turns aggression into a liability. Overcommitting linebackers leave gaps in coverage.
- Tempo mismatches: When a high-pace offense faces a low-pace defensive team that wants to control the clock, the team that imposes its tempo usually wins.
Understanding these dynamics is core to how we model college football at Playmakers Edge. For a deeper look at how we quantify coaching identity, check out What Is Coaching DNA?.
The Future of Offense
The line between Air Raid and RPO continues to blur. Many modern offenses borrow from both traditions -- using Air Raid formations and concepts while building in RPO reads. The coaches who can blend these approaches tend to be the hardest to defend, because their DNA profiles are unpredictable from week to week.
Keep an eye on the constellation throughout the season. The coaches whose radar charts shift and adapt are often the ones who make deep postseason runs.
The Edge Report is the blog of Playmakers Edge, where we turn college football data into actionable insights. Follow us for weekly analysis throughout the season.